1. Try and think of the whole story not the macro people want you to hear and fear”In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 75% bonds or 5,6% annuity products without losing any skin to the middleman, market would be below 4,000 point instantly! Once BoJ st“Mortgage stress to rise as RBA flags risk of higher rates in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 04 Jun 2023 22:01:37We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ↑ Joye, Christopher. Sign upIn this conversation. Given the number of markets that have had this set up and tanked. “@TvcMike @cjoye tech/growth/risk assets, makes any real sense. Anecdote from my AFR column today: “For Australia’s inflation rate to subside, we will also need more productivity to rationalise the brisk rates of wage growth. See charts below for the latest daily index data for Syd/Melb @cjoye banks are throwing everything to keep the arrears off the books, giving repayment holidays, turning loans into 30-40 year mortgages interest free, & CBA anyone ahead on their loan schedule are getting repayment discounts! @cjoye I think you’re missing a factor from your interest rate property price calculator, how many investors were using a rising market to facilitate/service their loans, buy new properties& hide some properties under company trusts to hide their debt positions. . "It's global cyber war out there". 3. @cjoye. FML 🫠”“@cjoye Too corrupt and too much poverty. 5k USD when you started this fund in May 2020. 1. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5% pa, or 2. com. 28. @Dante57112893. While all costs (interest, rates, land tax, utility, body corp, maintenance) are against investors, 2m deposit gives u 100k effortless money. 5% plus 1% productivity. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. christopher joye on Twitter: "Credit Suisse trying to squeeze. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Higher long-term risk-free cash rates are going to create a protracted pain trade for risky assets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Honestly, we hit the limit current incomes can support. In this conversation. Our globally unique War Lab put 74% probability on military conflict between China/Taiwan and a 45% chance of US-China conflict erupting over next decade based on data up to 2020. House prices fell at slightly slower rate in Oct, with 5 city index from @corelogicau losing 1. Immigration is still big in Aus. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersSign up. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. 7% on 376 auctions (@corelogicau) vs 49. @cjoye yep, thats the point. 5%. ”“@Fuffalufaguz @cjoye I bought at top 23 year old fixed rate 14 percent price tanked was in negative equity for 10 years house needed totally renovated sold for same price after all interest bills and pound bought nearly half what it would everyone is conned by media having to have what everyone has”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. RT @CommSec: In our latest Executive Series interview we sat down with @cjoye from Coolabah Capital to chat about wide range of issues including recent collapse of. Quote Tweet. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983 - MacroBusiness. Log in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. afr. Our subs will likely need to contain the most serious expansionist ambitions of an India we haven't yet met in the 2040s”“Huge jump in Sydney auction clearance rate to 74. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersLog in. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22@cjoye. “@cjoye It seems a bit silly to me that an actor, doing an advert, with a script, on the television, should suddenly become a financial commentator on cryptocurrencies. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The latest tweets from @cjoye Dante. Rebounding asset prices would keep inflation - and rates - higher for longer. ”Log in. 1%. 6 billion Snowy Hydro…We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter: "A property I heard about was. Youre allowed to tweet at new cycle-low milestones only. Captain Slapstick AC AO AM OAM AK @CaptSlapstick · 6h. 3:30 AM · May 20, 2022 · Twitter Web App. com. . Sign upNSW Treasurer Daniel Mookhey today reveals that Perrottet/Kean had planned to burden NSW taxpayers with another $25bn of debt to allow their investment arm, TCorp, to punt this money on stocks. . 6 billion Snowy Hydro… We've been forecasting a US recession since Jan 2022, which the market has recently converged on. S&P Reports Australian Home Loan Arrears Rose In December: S&P's Performance Index (SPIN) for Australian prime mortgages increased in December to 0. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Well this RBA info has finally caught up with Alan Kohler I photo’d the tv last yr & kept the dates visible I added words he was saying to the slides Check out the dates! August & October LAST YEAR!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ALT. There were good reasons for very low rates (pre-covid) and those reasons haven’t gone away. ”christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. 7%. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. States need fiscal revolution to avoid debt bomb - our analysis on NSW and Victoria. “No strong view on NSW election other than that NSW Labor Treasurer Daniel Mookhey is the smartest and hardest working politician I have ever dealt with in my life @dmookheyMLC @ALeighMP” Well you called it when you said we could likely have another series of rate hikes after the pause @cjoye. 5%, the…. 8:58 PM · Oct 5, 2022 · Twitter Web App. Aussie housing collapse spreads as Brisbane joins the Sydney and Melbourne crash bit. By Huobi announced $18. “@cjoye Step forward for transparency, but still doesn’t stop more/different things being said in other forums (or by other RBA officials). and @Johnkehoe23. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. ConversationSee new Tweets. ” christopher joye on Twitter: "Good morning!" / Twitter. Sydney is off 10. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus we’re feeling nauseous from the chemo 🤦♂️ @cjoye True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. Plus ,Bitcoin and Ethereum are down less than tech stocks. “Morning!”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Interest rates have soared, but commercial property values have barely moved. @cjoye was one of the few to go against this IIRC. . 4%. ALT. Bang on our forecast for 15-25% cumulative loss. Ave wage vs ave savings vs ave mortgage debt does not compute in my mind-who can afford a $600k mortgage at 7% without it destroying monthly income?”“@cjoye See through the noise with China - they are in population decline as Poor Japan v2. Sydney house prices plummet like it's 1983. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Log in What does the Credit Suisse bail-in of its hybrids mean for Aussie bank hybrids? @cjoye Back in 2017 I wrote about a small number of Tier 2 and AT1 structures from Genworth + ME Bank that did not convert to equity (ie, went straight to write-off) and which could invert the capital structure hierarchy - predicting a situation where shareholders would push for AT1 or T2 write-offs to minimise their losses, just as happened. This is 70s. ”While lots of people talk about the risk of war without actually understanding the odds, new research sheds light on the probability of major power conflict. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. christopher joye on Twitter. Sign up“@haluksenlik @cjoye There is obviously significantly more risk and fraud in crypto than in the stock market, but Matt Damon promoted a centralized brokerage that curates assets and thus doesn't expose you to the scams where possible. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2 days ago. 0% (0. Sydney (+1. christopher joye on Twitter. @TheKouk · Jul 8. Key takeaways * 15-20% peak to trough in Australian housing prices remains the view. In levels terms, capital-city dwelling prices…”@cjoye. . 1%, declining at a 17% annual rate, while Brisbane prices fall at 20% annual rate bit. . Prepare for equities and property pain - my analysis. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). what you choose? We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Aussie house price crash about to pass through all-time record of an 11% peak-to-trough loss. 9:35 PM · Aug 9, 2022 · Twitter Web App. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . The business indicators measure of wages suggests annual growth in non-farm hourly earnings picked up to 5% in Q1, although this series has grown more strongly than the RBA’s series over the past year. . Sydney prices have fallen by 11. . May 15, 2023 - 9:29AM. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. . This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change. @cjoye @PodcastFear. Sign upLog in. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye Sydney house prices have fallen 11. 92. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. New RBA analysis shows that between 15% and 17% of all Aussie borrowers are likely to experience negative cash-flows as a result of rate hikes in the RBA's base-line and adverse scenarios“@KellyAlspals @cjoye ALD share price hasn't moved much, so either no productivity or wage-rate spiral imo. “@cjoye After yeeeaars of saving for a deposit and finally getting into the market [at peak Jan 22] we now have to deal with this. christopher joye on Twitter. Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" According to CoreLogic records dating back to 1980, Australian dwelling values have never fallen by more than 11% across the combined. “@cjoye Japan took over 10 years from peak to 'bottom' with a similar size bubble. The real problem, people still spending and employment strong. christopher joye @cjoye. “@BruceMeaney @cjoye I don’t know if it’s good. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to . macrobusiness. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. What’s the result?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 6pc. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. There was only one way to go. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 2m are customer assets. Property is ‘sleepwalking’ towards its biggest test since the GFC. Conversation. 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. 1%; Brisbane prices down 0. *Potential for another RBA hiking cycle >4%. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. “@cjoye Mate, what's the go with this fund you run? You are doing a terrible job managing other people's money! By the way, #bitcoin was trading around $8. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye After some cajoling, I’ve dusted off my double barrel shottie and have agreed to track, hunt and eliminate the biggest housing bull of them all: @TheKouk @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. . 10:21 PM · Jul 8, 2022 · Twitter for iPhone. NSW's interest bill will surge past $7 billion/yr according to Treasurer @dmookheyMLC. 1. According to your own chart the annualized figure for Sydney is approx 11-12%. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Replying to . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. Hard to start a business or buy your first home if you can’t borrow money anywhere”“Aussie house prices moving sideways in February month to date, which is interesting. "@wmdglasgow Yes, @cjoye is one of our best journalists" (Tweet) – via Twitter. 2:58 AM · Jun 30, 2023. They all have movies on Netflix, and Netflix is down 80%. @cjoye posits #stock are 20% overvalued given the 5% discount rate -> seeing this in earnings #mastercard and #carnival both accelerating earnings, but not rewarded post. I am not a house price bull. @cjoye RBA speech just published: almost 30% of Aussie borrowers will suffer a more than 40% increase in their mortgage repayments if the RBA lifts the cash rate by 300 basis points, though concludes everything will be ok in that event. Funny thing is many keep saying it hasn't crashed yet. 6%mom) prices led the increase. 11. Sign upLog in. Quote Tweet. Embarrassingly wrong. Games fiasco will leave business shaking its head at Victorian farce. Bank of M&D or other exogenous injections can only go so far. This will in turn demand radical attitudinal change from entitled millennials who have never experienced high…. Strong academic credentials, but limited real world experience. These people need equity Plenty of people get paid goid money a d know very little of what they do The lesson is the herd mentality is alive and well On the way uo! All the way down Probability market crash epic proportions Going to be like the car market but even more acute We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You are right to hesitate on price directions for houses - low listings are contributing to price stability, but so are rents increasing by 25% ($120 pw on $500 pw) and many buyers paying cash (not first home buyers). We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users“@cjoye plenty of illiquidity in the big super funds non-listed assets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 9% vs 56. ”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 3%, Melbourne/Brissie both down 6. @cjoye. It would not shock me for people in 2034 to be asking "is this the year Australian property prices finally see gains?". . 85% to 4. @cjoye. 13 Jun 2023 05:35:09“RT @rogerkermode: I reckon there are two generations of ‘finance dudes’ who have never seen high inflation and cannot comprehend the fear i…”christopher joye on Twitter: "RBA now on track to hike rates in June given upside surprise to today's inflation, lifting the cash rate from 3. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersAussie house prices are continuing to fall at a very rapid pace in December based on early data fromWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Australian money is rushing out of the crypto exchange, and customers are willing to accept a big haircut to cash out their holdings. 1%. We now expect Australia's #housing prices to fall nearly 20%, before a modest recovery in 2024 as mortgage rates fall. Log in Another story this morning with fresh quotes from NSW Treasurer @dmookheyMLC on paying back the Liberal Party's $100bn debt explosion: "When asked about the $40 billion in managed funds administered by the state’s debt arm, Treasury Corp, including a $1. 10% in more pain for borrowers and home owners. Melb also up: 67. 2B cash! @cjoye Aussie house prices now correcting fast as rates rise, led by Sydney and Melbourne: RBA will struggle to lift past 1. So how does this effect them? I would have thought ppl who regularly buy/sell homes or were looking to cash out for retirement would be more affected?”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. com. This chart from Bloomberg provides a good summary of consensus estimates. 0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes. The news is not good: "We construct a new ‘weighted-median’ measure of underlying inflation based on a truncated monthly CPI. 6%; 5 city index prices down 1. Australia needs to produce more with fewer people. We have unscrambled the letters cjoye (cejoy) to make a list of all the word combinations found in the popular word scramble. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. @cjoye. @parrapower2022 @solo_dio_ @rabbit_wealth @AvidCommentator @BikoKonstantin1 @Aus__Property @rabbit_wealth @justthink1 @cjoye . 8%mom in March, the first monthly increase since April 2022 and the largest monthly increase since January 2022. would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. In this conversation. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle… @cjoye A tiny, single day drop in Aussie house prices evidenced in the CoreLogic daily data---is it pure noise or something more substantive as tighter policy grips? corelogic. So presumably brought their first home. “Good morning!”In this conversation. macrobusiness. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. 30% drop wipes out 40% of gains! Its so bad REINZ has taken down old reports!”“@ddtraderr @cjoye Ummmm Yes they can refinance however this is happening because interest rates are rising ⬆️⬆️⬆️ They may be able to refinance if they paid off enough, and if the properties have appreciated in value That’s a few “ifs” in there Overall, the situation is grim at beset”“3x crypto banks now dead: Silvergate; Silicon Valley; and Signature. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested [email protected]! From US2yr notes to the Russell2000 and Peleton, Netflix, AfterPay etc etc etc. ”Log in. 1%, bringing total decline to 6. @cjoye. See new Tweetschristopher joye on Twitter: "RT @eurekareport: On Talking Finance this week with @AlanKohler: central banks face a longer, harder task to get inflation down; dodging an Australian recession; an inflationary budget & opposition in the opposition ft. christopher joye. 30 Nov 2022 01:03:22 Australia faces "largest and longest house price correction in history" - MacroBusiness In this conversation. This will be record housing crash, 100% triggered by rate hikes -. com. Expect a global recession, continuing asset price declines, and waves of defaults, writes cjoye. non-bank wholesale funding costs? Seems like there is further upward pressure from o/s debt markets coming here which could even further exarcebate the fixed to variable, and those currently on variable. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App @cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. @cjoye. christopher joye on Twitter: "Morning!" / Twitter. Logically can't happen. Our predicted housing recovery continues @FinancialReview (Prelim. IR here are… Show more . “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. . Log in. 7% in July; Melbourne prices down 1. Drone operator Christopher Joye posted. they all roll over the same. Log in. Crypto is toxic”We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. ly/3tKymvn 8:25 PM · Nov 21, 2022 · Twitter Web App@cjoye Aussie house price update to 25 July: Sydney prices down 1. Replying to @cjoye @Harold36089778. I'm often asked how much time/effort it takes to write an AFR column. Stock up 18%. In this conversation. Grrrr”“@cjoye Thoughts on bank and esp. Log in. Someone did the math on how the housing ponzi affects this generation compared to the days of old. “The “family finances vs a year ago” sub-index dropped 8% in February, to 62. Master Your Unstoppable Mindset. Sitting on $6. #ausecon @felicity_emmett @AdelaideTimbrel. christopher joye. 16 May 2023 00:02:27“Aussie house prices fall another >1% in November, total loss now 7. But with a referendum and election coming in the next 12 months, in addition to a $19b surplus. True, but houses / home units are hard to beat. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested usersIn this conversation. 3. Binance Australia selling bitcoin $6k cheaper than other exchanges. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Retweets. I suspect the increased earnings (and potentially profit) of the big players in ASX 200 might offset increases in discount rates. ”“With an inflation-targeting central bank, cash is actually one of your best inflation hedges”See new Tweets. 6%mom) prices led the increase. And inflation isn't coming down anytime soon with rents increasing Rate cuts in 2023 will simply shoot inflation back up. Sign up“@cjoye People keep in mind the huge upswing the housing market had pre covid. Verified account Protected Tweets @; Suggested users In this conversation. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . christopher joye on Twitter. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 9. ConversationA not so tiny drop in some parts of the country. @cjoye/Twitter) Shark clamps onto diver's leg as blood and screams pour out in attack video. A controversial article by Christopher Joye, an outspoken investment portfolio manager and columnist for the Australian Financial Review, has. "We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. . 76% from 0. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. House price declines not likely to slow until RBA stops hiking. . Redirecting to /user/cjoye/. @cjoye Cracking interview with the great Tom Piotrowski on equities, bonds, house prices, banks and pretty much everything under the sun - notably recorded before the RBA kicked off its second hiking cycle…CoreLogic is the leading property data, information, analytics and services provider in Australia and New Zealand with growing partnerships throughout Asia. “Morning!” We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Redirecting to /cjoye/status/1675386755422494722Embed Tweet. estimates will revise down a bit. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in. Massive portion of the population realising they are not going to achieve an acceptable basic standard of living. then the printing starts again leading to further dilution of currency . Don’t know anyone else that predicted that. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. The latest tweets from @cjoye christopher joye. Both are inflationary to housing and do nothing to address affordability. Sign upWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Acquire everything! It’s a bull market! Equities are cheap! The buy-the-dip-reflex will prevail! Central banks will slash rates and lift their inflation targets!We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Just think your narrow focus on interest rates as the main driver of house prices and that prices will fall 30% is consistent with many of you other views. au. “@bluntman_eth @Tombeecon @cjoye So they just entered the real estate market. This is deflationary. Interesting to see Treasurer Jim Chalmers trying to directly jawbone the RBA into not hiking by arguing that the inflation result does not meet the "material" upside surprise test Bullock set - despite every economist and the market saying it does. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “I did a podcast interview with Koda's David Clark on the coming commercial real estate crash, why a second phase of the housing correction will emerge, the looming. Log inWe would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “@cjoye Chris, you do realise that we have 30,000 arrivals per month, when in April we only started 2500 new dwellings? There are people coming from overseas using foreign currency to rent or buy property with currency that has appreciated against the Aud by 15% in the past six months. Sign upIn this conversation. 4% pa return. . Some areas down -25. Retweets. Log in. ConversationSee new Tweets. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. “Bitcoin down at US$20k again, but Aussie house prices stabilising once more while equities tank. Like. Log in. com. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. You actually charge people a fee for that performance?”“@KirilRuvinsky @cjoye People are away in Sydney, this Aussie day turned into a long weekend, my wife works in circular quay and there were 5 people on her floor at work! People are still spending and it appears that less people under 35 have a mortgage these days, rising unemployment is the only key”Imaging if mums&dads can directly access to 6. Tech party is over as Canva and Atlassian get tough, and perks dry up“Does any seriously believe house prices will not fall after the RBA cutting the cash rate from 1. . Log inchristopher joye @cjoye 7h One of the more interesting questions going around is whether bonds issued for environment, social and/or governance (ESG) purposes attract a lower. @cjoye In an apartment complex of 100, it only takes 2 or 3 sales to mark down the whole 100. Immigrants need groceries, cars, bank accounts, etc”“Westpac data shows that exactly 50% of all borrowers are less than one month ahead on their mortgage repayments, or behind. CHRIS JUDD’S Masters of the Market Masters of the Market is back for 2021 and the first episode of the year is with CIO of Coolabah Capital and columnist for the AFR, Chris. A $14m unsecured loan will cover the client loss, creating a $32m debt for Huobi Like I said before: there will be unpredictable fall out from FTX in the following weeks. The stunning incident occurred in the waters off Werri Beach in New South Wales on Sunday and was captured on video. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. See new Tweets. Find great real estate professionals on Zillow like cjoyeThere are 9 words found that match your query. Likes. Replying to. 2 days ago. Wonderfully cherry picked data in desperation to keep credibility of the narrative that allows them to be defenders of last resort of the great Australian credit fuelled housing bubble. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. This will bring the RBA much closer to global central banks like BoE at 4. We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. 5%, the Bank of Canada at 4. It’s like the economy has cancer and our doctors wants to stop treatment caus. @cjoye I still haven’t seen you clearly outline why rates will stay high over the medium to long term, when nothing has fundamentally permanently changed since 2019. @cjoye And then the currency will fall, inflation will accelerate and rates will need to go even higher than they would’ve needed to in the first place. Lower bound of our 15-25pc forecast correction could be an optimistic outcome…”Log in. Sign upLog in.